Abdul Basit’s threat and reading between the lines

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Shifting power centers in Pakistan

The word threat has been used deliberately here because less than 48 hours ago when Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit talked to media he was not only  the answering the questions from Media but was trying to convey  something to India from his country in the veiled threat with an encrypted message of shifting power centers in his country.

Those who are following the Pakistan politics and its shifting balance of power from Nawaj Sharif to Pakistan Army in silent way from last few months can understand very well what Abdul Basit has in his minds when he was bluntly refusing the possibility of reciprocity from Pakistan side to allow the Indian investigating agency NIA to visit Pakistan in Pathankoat probe and linking the peace process between India and Pakistan with Jammu &Kashmir issue.

There is something to read between the lines.

  • Pakistan is slowly entering into the phase where it has to face several elections from Punjab province to federal parliamentary elections in less than two years and before 2018 when Nawaj Sharif will go for general elections he has to undergo the provincial elections in his home turf Punjab and the outcome of this provincial election will decide his future in 2018 because in 2103 he had been able to form his government due to the massive win in Punjab province.

Nawaj Sharif has been under constant  pressure from his army, ISI and radical elements within his country for last two years for his supposed soft attitude to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and lot of stories have been floated in Pakistan media that he is having good relations with India and Indian PM to safeguard his business interest and immense wealth.

The recent Panama Papers leak has mentioned Nawaj Sharif family also who have off shore companies in Iceland and have benefited from it.

 

Pakistan Army and ISI who were planting stories in their media on Nawaj Sharif that he is a businessman Prime Minister who always put his and his cronies business interest above all other things have received a stick to hit Sharif and given the political situation Nawaj Sharif has come  on back foot because in present scenario  if he does not toe the lines of Army establishment or ISI he is in danger to face the Arab spring like situation and have the danger to confront  the fate like Hosni Mobarak, Ben Ali or Kaddaffi where all these strong men were forced to leave the power not  only because people came on the streets but because army too wanted them to go out of power.

 

In new situation Pakistan Army will do everything to exploit the new circumstances and Nawaj Sharif have no other option than to dance on their tunes and Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit was indicating to that power shift.

 

  • In last two years since Naredra Modi government came to power Pakistan media has tried to unite its people with half cooked or sometimes baseless stories on Indian involvement in its efforts to destabilize Pakistan and recent arrest of So called Indian spy Kulbhushan Yadav (which India denies) is another attempt from Pakistan  to divert the attention of its people from the debate inside the Pakistan as how they harbored and patronized the evil of  terrorism which is targeting its own innocent  people but now  the media propaganda and display of Kulbhushan Yadav confession in Pakistan Media has changed the whole debate in Pakistan where  in last few years the civil society and certain section in Media  were equally raising the rational  questions on the Pakistan patronage of people like   Hafiz Sayeed and Masood Azhar but now the debate has shifted and conspiracy theory has superseded the rational debate.
  • In last few months veteran Pakistan diplomats have reinvented their relations of cold war days into the US administration and think tanks  and impressed upon them to look towards Pakistan in sympathetic way as new government in New Delhi headed by an  aggressive Nationalist Party  is all about to distort the balance of power in south Asia and weaker Pakistan is not in favor of the geo political interest of USA in this region and the same time Pakistan frightened their sympathizers in US administration and think tank that  if they will be overlooked by the  US  they will have no option other  than to provide a gate way to China in South Asia and West Asia. The Pakistan veteran diplomats also reminded US administration and think tanks that given the fact that Saudi Arab is too concerned for Iran nuclear build up they would not mind to support Saudi to become nuclear armed country to balance the threat of Iran. Pakistan has exploited these factors very well and agreed some parts of USA administration and think tanks to not change their policy of giving statements against Pakistan but not to support India in any substantive way on the issue of Pak sponsored terrorism
  • In coming days Pakistan will aggressively follow the Pakistan army and ISI line as its official policy and propaganda, media war and psychological war against India will take place at fast pace to create more confusion among policy makers and analysts across the world to  project the South Asian region as the most volatile where a single flare up can put the entire world on danger to face a nuclear war and all this is happening because India is not serious on Kashmir issue and world powers need to pursue India to be  more responsible to limit the Indian options on Pak sponsored terrorism.