Power shift in Pakistan, India’s worry

The Beginning of end of Nawaj Sharif.

The hours before Amarntah Pilgrims were attacked in Anantnag area of Kashmir, the major political development inside Pakistan took place which  gone unnoticed in India in the backdrop of the grief of terrorist attack.

Pakistan has been thrown into a situation which would turn into political turmoil with larger implications for India too. The Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaj Sharif has been found guilty of misleading and hiding the facts before Joint Investigation team which was investigating the Nawaj Sharif family for their offshore accounts abroad in the backdrop of Panama paper leak. Last year  in April when the allegations were hurled on Nawaj Sharif and his family for hiding money outside country in illegal way and the Panama paper leak become huge embarrassment for his family and handing over  a major political issue to his political opponents  ,  Nawaj Sharif tried to put a brave face before his countrymen to turn the table  with  announcement of  the formation of JIT on this matter and pledged before his people in a televised address  that if he or his family would be found guilty in this investigation in any way he would resign from his post. Now the JIT has submitted its report to Supreme Court of Pakistan and with its conclusion that daughter of Nawaj Sharif Maryam Sharif who was seen as successor for Nawaj Sharif has off shore accounts outside Pakistan. The Supreme Court of Pakistan would look into this report next week and somehow their observation or order is going to trigger instability in power equation inside Pakistan.

In any way Nawaj Sharif will be going to lose his grip on Pakistan and his loss is the ultimate win for army establishment in Pakistan.

This power shift would have great ramifications for Indian security as Prime Minister of Pakistan had made personal rapport with Indian Prime Minister in spite  of  all the ups and downs in the relations between two countries ,and did everything to keep Army in control and from time to time the selective leakage from media put army in uncomfortable situation to not allow it to repeat the history of coup and his relations with Indian Prime Minister given him leverage on Army and Nawaj Sharif had been able to hold on power with firm grip on Army.

Now the political crisis for Nawaj Sharif has given the much needed ammunition to Army in Pakistan to throw Nawaj Sharif out of power without coup

The immediate effect on Indian security could be as followed

The Pakistan Army which did not look   eager to give befitting reply to Indian hot pursuit   on LOC as surgical strikes inside POK as their priority was to not allow Nawaj Sharif to get the political benefit for their efforts as in their opinion Nawaj Sharif was the person who needs to go first before army take hold of country . The weak Nawaj Sharif or Pakistan without Nawaj Sharif as its Prime Minister would provide more elbow room to Army to explore more adventurous and aggressive policy towards India to win back its lost glory among its citizens.

The major propaganda inside Pakistan would take place with some cooked stories or half cooked stories to look Nawaj Sharif as personal friend of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who befriended him on the cost of the interests of Pakistan as Army would do everything to put all the blame of their failures to Nawaj Sharif and his so called cozy relationship with Indian PM.

The sudden increase in insurgency in Kashmir valley and some terrorist attacks in other parts of the country along with efforts to vitiate the communal atmosphere of country cannot be ruled out.