If any political analyst has to do any analysis on the thought process or political preparations of Congress party it is as simple as to simply follow the Gandhis and their political message. According to this formula if we do an attempt to read between the lines the political message of Gandhis for Uttar Pradesh, something can be extracted.
Most of the opponents for the Congress party criticize them and target them for their dynast brand of politics but Congress does not bother much for this criticism because India as a nation and civilization has inculcated and ingrained the admiration for dynastic culture and never took it as stigma because if it would have been the case two great epics “ Ramayan” and “ Mahabharat” could never been the torch bearer for the whole Indian civilization and great inspiration for every story, novel or great poetic works. Both of the two great epics are revolving around the two great dynasts, so it would be unfair to believe or assume that Indian people hate dynast. What people hate is not dynast but the process of any kind of stagnation of society which results from dynast.
Since 2004 the Gandhis are fighting the war with them to evolve and discover their dynasty for future age as Motilal Nehru and Mahtma Gandhi together did between 1920’s to 1930’s. Contrary to the perception and image build up for Congress Vice President, the writer of these lines does not believe that Rahul Gandhi was inept or escapist to not carry the responsibility of top posts either in Congress organization or government in previous years. Rather the writer of these lines had strong feedback for Rahul Gandhi that he was more focused to discover and evolve him in the contemporary perspectives of the Indian politics which require him to first learn , listen and shed the arrogance of the inheritor of India’s first family and become first among equals in new young India.
The huge setback for Congress party in general elections in 2014 provided much needed ammunition to Rahul Gandhi to revamp his organization and the gradually scale down the generational gap without much hue and cry .
The political strategy of Rahul Gandhi and Congress party is very straight and clear to stop the Modi’s BJP to win more bigger and crucial states, isolate the saffron fraternity on ideological ground to compel them to become more rigid and follow their vision ( Most of the people find it exclusivist) to end up ultimately in losing the liberal opinion and support inside the country as well as outside.
Rahul Gandhi has not been only able to stop the Modi Juggernaut in Bihar with his realpolitik to embrace the RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav to whom once he wanted to be in jail. The political activism of Rahul Gandhi in Rahit Vemula suicide case , JNU controversy and his periodic attack on Modi Government to brand it as “ Suit Buit ki Sarkar” is doing the same to Rahul Gandhi what Ms Sonia Gandhi did during the Vajpaee regime.
Vajpaee was doing much better on economic front but the strategy of Ms Sonia Gandhi to woo the poors, Dalits, tribal and minorities gradually expanded the base of secular and non communist left in the country and Vajpaee kept losing state by state in his whole term.
In today’s politics Narendra Modi is standing on the same pedestal where Vajpaee was in 2001. In 2001 he replaced the Gujarat chief Minister Keshubhai Patel and was about to face the elections in Uttar Pradesh in less than one year in 2002 when the union Home Minister Rajnath Singh was serving as chief Minister for Uttar Pradesh who also served as the last chief Minister from BJP in the state.
The contemporary political situation of Uttar Pradesh is more or less similar to 2001-02 but in different context.
The polarization of “ Mandal” and “ Kamandal” in Uttar Pradesh made Congress irrelevant in political terms and the age old political formula of Congress of Dalit, Muslim, Brahmin and Kshatriya got dismantled and new political equations emerged where cast combinations were redefined in newer context and any political force who had been able to made its cast arithmetic and political leadership chemistry accurate was able to reach to the power.
In 1991 BJP had been able to consolidate most Hindus to their fold in the name of “ Hindutva” ( although it was also the good cast combination with Dalits, Backwards and Forwards together) but the large chunk of Muslims were excluded from this coalition which made it unsustainable political combination and in 1993 new political combination of social justice emerged on the horizon of Uttar Pradesh where upper caste Hindus were excluded from this combination but this rainbow coalition did receive the jolt too and since 1995 two political streams SP and BSP took their different paths as SP decided to become the voice of OBC’s in the state and BSP emerged as the face of Dalits in the most populated state. But both the parties realized the limitations for their cast centric base and did everything to woo other communities beyond their limited approach. SP goes for upper cast kshatriya and Muslims and BSP inclined towards Brahmins to take ideological and political shift to broaden its base.
The state elections in 2002 first time witnessed an undercurrent which most of the political observers and media houses ignores and predicted the fight between then ruling BJP and SP but the real undercurrent was the growing stature and social as well as political base of BSP which successfully broke the unity of backward class people from SP and most backward class people find their resemblance and priorities with Dalits rather than strong OBC’s and the emergence of this new social coalition unsettled the whole political analysis and BSP almost touched the three figure mark and this election pave the way for the future social coalition of Upper Cast and Dalits in Uttar Pradesh to transform the political landscape which culminated in the 2007 when Ms Mayawati become first Dalit chief Minister of state with full majority mark in state assembly.
Since 1989 when “ Mandal” and “ Kamandal” created turbulence in the status quo of the politics of Uttar Pradesh the upper caste Hindus realized the changing reality of the state politics and decided to piggybacking the power rather than dreaming of heading the government on their own and swung from one regional camp to another depend upon their capacity to reach the power.
The general election in 2014 broke this myth when people of the UP voted beyond the caste lines and broke the stagnation of more than two decades old political monopoly of the state but BJP have been unable to erect the edifice on the foundation which people of the state provided to them.
Narendra Modi won the general elections in the hope of “Taking the nation and state into new era and find the new solutions for older problems” but in Uttar Pradesh he carried forward the more than two decade old political culture to define the people of the state either in communal way or fragment them into to their caste identity for political gain.
In Uttar Pradesh Narendra Modi lives in history he want to beat Pt Jawahar Lal Nehru with Dr Bheemrao Ambedkar but he seems to have forgot the lesson of the mandate of general election 2014 that India want to go ahead into future with new vision and does not want to stuck in past history to punish the present for so called past mistakes of history.