The head of Pakistan Based Terrorist organization Hizb ul Mujahideen Sayed Salahudeen has threatened India of nuclear war with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. Unlike others I am not willing to dismiss this threat entirely as fringe rant and I have some strong reasons behind it.
- The geo political situation of any region is mostly defined by its geographical location coupled with the personality trait of the people who lives around that region and these two factors are considered mainly as to project the future scenario for any region. Geographically India is located in such a place from where it can’t afford to become part of any group in global political power game. This was the main motive behind the decision of the Indian leaders to not align with either USA bloc or USSR bloc since it got independence and power in their own hands to decide about the policy for their own interest. If India would have openly decided to join the USA bloc it had every possibility to be disturbed by the USSR led sabotage to fragment the country ranging from central Asia to West Asia.
Since the fall of USSR in 1991 the whole planet enjoyed the unipolarity of the international relations with USA enjoying the authority of the Super power for decades but in last few years the equations of international relations had got changed and USA is receiving the direct challenge from Russia and China on Asian and European front altogether.
- The changing international relations had again brought the focus on the Maritime strength of the nations and oceans have reemerged as the new flash points. Like ancient days and modern days when European powers explored and conquered the new places in Africa, Asia and some other places, the importance of oceans is going to redefine the strategic and political realities of the global affairs. In these circumstances the Indian strategic priorities needs to be redefined as the face of threat may be the same (Internal sabotage with outside support to provoke the fault lines among country) but the conspirators and supporters will not be the same.
- Since the independence of India USA was much indifferent to Indian interest because once India decides to be neutral in the great game of the super powers it inclined towards Pakistan and China to curtail the influence of USSR in Asian region but now priorities and strategic interest for USA in Asian region has changed but this change of the power equation has put India in a fix.
- The threat of Sayed Salahudeen needs to be taken in this new perspective of changing strategic realities in the region. The sudden surge in Kashmir unrest has something to do with the Indian inclination to USA and openly challenging China to take the responsibilities in the Indian Ocean.
- Those who believe that small nuclear confrontation in South Asian region is unbelievable thought are either too much optimistic or pretend to be optimistic. We had one example behind us from history which proves that nuclear becomes potent weapon to fix the strategic priorities, One of the reason behind the decision of the USA to nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki in such a situation when Japan was almost on the verge of defeat was to deter the USSR for next generation of cold war and USA had successfully avoided the nuclear war with USSR for decades and ultimately fragmented it , if Hiroshima and Nagasakai would have not happened the result of the cold war could have been the different . The moral of the story is very simple that those nations who aspire to become empires do not mind to be seen unethical or immoral to achieve their long term goal.
- India can’t afford to be causal and live in its own perception for global affairs. Indian inclination to USA as strategic ally is premature thought and its claim and ambition to fulfill its responsibility in Indian Ocean is an over enthusiastic statement without going into every aspects and implications for this thought. The whole Asian region is clouded under the nuclear threat and two rogue states North Korea and Pakistan are potential threat to this region and both the states are enjoying the patronage of China who want to use them for its strategic interest and like an encircled cat in room China would have no option in near future to accelerate the confrontation and go for nuclear adventurism. If Indian leadership is really serious to play its role in Indian Ocean and aspire to become strategic ally to USA they should persuade the world leaders and particularly USA to reach out to an Nuclear agreement for Asia to put the nuclear weapons of North Korea and Pakistan under international supervision so in any condition nuclear weapons would not be allowed to be used even in conventional war too.